Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

For the discussion of the Legendary Pictures MonsterVerse. This includes Godzilla (2014), Kong: Skull Island and any upcoming films under the MonsterVerse umbrella.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Godzilla21 »

Terasawa wrote:I think about 15/28ths.
lol you beat me to it.
SpaceG92 wrote:
<=25% joke. >=75% topic. Even then - that's pushing it.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Gigantis »

Honestly unless something happens that takes the film down some pegs like what happened to KOTM, i think it'll do alright. Nothing specific though.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Cookson »

Alright well welcome back to the box office discussion!

This film is getting a ton of buzz. It’s helping that there’s no other big film coming out before it nor after for months. So the question is, how does this translate to box office numbers in this environment:

US: This will be the first big Hollywood film in months, and it benefits for there not being a big Hollywood film after for months. Theaters are still slowly opening back up in this Covid world so it’s still hard to say. However, the covid19 vaccine is starting to be more available. I think this does more than WW84 and will glide its way to KotM numbers. Prediction 50m-110m

China: Let’s just say films are not suffering here at all. Everything is normal here. If it stays that way, this will be huge there. Again it benefits for being the first big Hollywood film in months and only one for months. My low end is Skull Island numbers. Prediction 180m-300m

Everywhere else: I really don’t know how other places are doing with Covid so my prediction will be 50-75.

Globally that would be 280m-485. That would be absolutely fantastic in this environment.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Hokmuto »

Cookson wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:12 pm Alright well welcome back to the box office discussion!

This film is getting a ton of buzz. It’s helping that there’s no other big film coming out before it nor after for months. So the question is, how does this translate to box office numbers in this environment:

US: This will be the first big Hollywood film in months, and it benefits for there not being a big Hollywood film after for months. Theaters are still slowly opening back up in this Covid world so it’s still hard to say. However, the covid19 vaccine is starting to be more available. I think this does more than WW84 and will glide its way to KotM numbers. Prediction 50m-110m

China: Let’s just say films are not suffering here at all. Everything is normal here. If it stays that way, this will be huge there. Again it benefits for being the first big Hollywood film in months and only one for months. My low end is Skull Island numbers. Prediction 180m-300m

Everywhere else: I really don’t know how other places are doing with Covid so my prediction will be 50-75.

Globally that would be 280m-485. That would be absolutely fantastic in this environment.
I am very ignorant on the situation in China both in terms of the pandemic and box office. Are we sure films aren't suffering there at all? Didn't they have a recent outbreak?
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Cookson »

There’s some pretty big movie hits over there. I get the issues with China, but let’s just keep it box office related.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Arbok »

Hokmuto wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 8:58 pmI am very ignorant on the situation in China both in terms of the pandemic and box office. Are we sure films aren't suffering there at all? Didn't they have a recent outbreak?
The box office seems to have turned the corner in China, at least when looking at just the top ten films in a given weekend. You can see the various weekend data here and use the drop downs to compare to prior years and see the low points it hit in 2020 during various lockdowns there:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/b ... 1/?area=CN
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by ultrazilla »

Yeah I'm feeling optimistic too, they already got a 250m paycheck outright so anything generated from the theaters would be icing on the cake. Whatever it does, hope it's enough to green lit a sequel of similar budget.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by XxComablack1937xX »

ultrazilla wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:44 pm Yeah I'm feeling optimistic too, they already got a 250m paycheck outright so anything generated from the theaters would be icing on the cake. Whatever it does, hope it's enough to green lit a sequel of similar budget.
After the insane hype and reaction to the trailer, I can't imagine Legendary just letting Godzilla or Kong go away after this film. Legendary got there money for the film and is already broken even or made minor profit and odds are it will do alright at the box office which will add additional profit. Not to mention Merch and DVD sales that will eventually come.

We will I think at the very least get another movie for both Godzilla and Kong and proceed from there. Legendary doesn't have very many properties of there own right now outside of Godzilla and Kong besides Pokémon and Dune. While there hopeful for Dune its unproven that it will be as successful as they hoping it will be.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by gridiron_kaiju »

Maybe I’m biased but there’s a lot more buzz around this than WW’84 and I think this could be the movie that brings theaters back...

Cookson I know you’re part of that box office forum place so you’ll really have to keep pestering that Gavin guy to see how the hype is building in China. All of those other morons seem almost jealous that this movie is getting so much hype compared to their Disney or Christopher Nolan movies :lol:
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by StreamOfKaijuness »

Predicting numbers in this pandemic is futile but the only way Godzilla vs. Kong is topping Wonder Woman 1984 at the box office is if it gets delayed until after the pandemic.

North America still has a very, very long way to go before movie theaters will return to something resembling normal business. The end of March is not going to be much better in this regard than the end of January. That’s why No Time to Die and so many other films have just been delayed to later this year or next year.

Of all the movies released since the lockdowns began, Tenet has been the biggest draw in North American theaters with just $57.9 million. That’s 2.86x its $20.2m Labor Day opening weekend, which would be a good opening-to-final multiplier if the actual grosses weren’t so low. Wonder Woman 1984 debuted to $16.7m over Christmas weekend and has $37.7m domestic so far, which is currently 2.25x its opening weekend, a far cry from the first Wonder Woman’s extraordinary 3.99x multiplier.

Would Godzilla vs. Kong have had staying power at the domestic box office even without the pandemic? Although Kong: Skull Island made 2.75x its opening weekend by the end of its run, both Legendary’s Godzilla (2.15x) and Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2.31x) were a lot more frontloaded. All three of the Hollywood Godzilla adaptations to date including the TriStar film have done 54.4% to 56.1% of their total domestic business during their first seven days in theaters. Hollywood Godzilla movies have yet to show staying power in North American theaters.

Perhaps even more significantly for Godzilla vs. Kong, high-profile crossover films pitting iconic characters against each other have a track record of drawing an initial surge in moviegoer interest only to sink like a stone from their second weekend onward. Freddy vs. Jason opened to $36.4m domestic in 2003 followed by a steep -63.2% second-weekend drop, and that opening weekend ended up being 44% of its final domestic total. Alien vs. Predator opened to $38.2m in 2004 and then dropped -67.6% in weekend two, with 47.6% of its domestic total coming from its opening weekend. In 2016, Batman v Superman opened to $166m and then plunged -69.1% the next weekend, and it did just over half of its total domestic business (50.2%) on opening weekend.

Maybe the delays for so many upcoming movies could give GvsK more box office staying power as it becomes the only event in theaters but that’s going to be mitigated by its at-home availability on HBO Max. What’s more, being on HBO Max means that online piracy services will offer full-HD streams & downloads of GvsK while the movie is still in theaters, so even people who don’t have HBO Max will be able to get the same viewing experience at home. The reason why GvsK will have theaters mostly to itself, though, is because the COVID-19 pandemic isn’t close to being over and that’s still going to be what undercuts this film’s ticket sales more than anything else. It’s a shame, because with the amount of buzz the trailer ended up generating, Godzilla vs. Kong had a real shot at being a genuine (if frontloaded) box office hit in a post-pandemic world.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Re: The future of the MonsterVerse, I would argue HBO MAX signups, and maintained viewership thereafter, is a better indication than box office results.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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XxComablack1937xX wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 4:52 am
ultrazilla wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:44 pm Yeah I'm feeling optimistic too, they already got a 250m paycheck outright so anything generated from the theaters would be icing on the cake. Whatever it does, hope it's enough to green lit a sequel of similar budget.
After the insane hype and reaction to the trailer, I can't imagine Legendary just letting Godzilla or Kong go away after this film. Legendary got there money for the film and is already broken even or made minor profit and odds are it will do alright at the box office which will add additional profit. Not to mention Merch and DVD sales that will eventually come.

We will I think at the very least get another movie for both Godzilla and Kong and proceed from there. Legendary doesn't have very many properties of there own right now outside of Godzilla and Kong besides Pokémon and Dune. While there hopeful for Dune its unproven that it will be as successful as they hoping it will be.
Yeah, I think the trailer numbers alone must have really surprised WB and Legendary, probably further boosted their confidence for a new movie. And if this actually turns out to be a good and enjoyable movie to the critics and fans then it's seal the deal.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Agent Smith »

Yeah the trailer popularity is definitely a good sign. It is hard to predict how good this will at the box office until release but I am definitely optimistic.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by ultrazilla »

Trailer is already closing in on 40m views if adding HBO Max and other channels, let's see if it would reach 100m by the time movie hits.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by gottatalktothefake »

>not even 5 days and it’s almost at the same amount that G14 had after 7 years

Oh my god
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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gottatalktothefake wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:15 am >not even 5 days and it’s almost at the same amount that G14 had after 7 years

Oh my god
...zilla
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Smuggers wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:05 pm
gottatalktothefake wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:15 am >not even 5 days and it’s almost at the same amount that G14 had after 7 years

Oh my god
...zilla
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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The box office, in my mind, is a bit of a crapshoot for predictions. If this was a normal time, it absolutely do very very well. We just haven't had had a real precedent to look at. Film's already made a profit via the HBO Max deal and the payoff Legendary got so a healthy box office at this point is kinda just extra. Still, we can hope for a nice BO. And if anything, HBO Max subs will likely shoot up like they did for WW84.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Yes the subs for HBO need to be taken into account too. I am sure they will be substantial.
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Agent Smith wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:19 am Yes the subs for HBO need to be taken into account too. I am sure they will be substantial.
Aye. HBO max produces multiple billions in revenue every year. People might snark at streaming services, but they do churn out some very healthy profits and have substantially lower upkeep costs vs. theatrical BO cuts. And HBO Max's profits pretty much doubled with WW84 and stayed where they were. They recently hit a 2 year goal in 2 months.
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