Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Shhh! The Octopus wrote:
Pkmatrix wrote:people under 40 often seem more knowledgeable about movies than people between 40 and 60.
No way.
You'd think, but I've never heard a person under 40 say "I never watch movies older than me" and then shut down the conversation. Meanwhile, I've heard that statement again and again from my 40+ year old co-workers any time I bring up a movie older than, say, 1965. Anecdotal, sure, but that's my experience. Outside the fairly rare GenX nerd, the GenX people I've encountered or in my life either have no interest outside what's currently popular/immediately consumable or sports. Meanwhile, mention an older movie to a Millennial or Generation Z the first thing they say is, "I don't know that, hold on a minute let me look it up", whip out their phone, and either pull up the IMDB or Wikipedia page.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by fred25_ca »

Pkmatrix wrote:
Shhh! The Octopus wrote:
Pkmatrix wrote:people under 40 often seem more knowledgeable about movies than people between 40 and 60.
No way.
You'd think, but I've never heard a person under 40 say "I never watch movies older than me" and then shut down the conversation. Meanwhile, I've heard that statement again and again from my 40+ year old co-workers any time I bring up a movie older than, say, 1965. Anecdotal, sure, but that's my experience. Outside the fairly rare GenX nerd, the GenX people I've encountered or in my life either have no interest outside what's currently popular/immediately consumable or sports. Meanwhile, mention an older movie to a Millennial or Generation Z the first thing they say is, "I don't know that, hold on a minute let me look it up", whip out their phone, and either pull up the IMDB or Wikipedia page.
I kind of agree. I'll always remember that older woman in her 70's that came to buy some movies at my old work, they must have been from the 30's or 40's. She was complaining how new movies just aren't as good as old movies. So I asked her if she liked silent movies from the 20's and she answered me that silent movies are boring and not worth her time. So i was like gotcha, you just like stuff from your generation and that's it.

Most people are like this. They'll talk about how movies were so much better in their time but really, they couldn't care less about anything that came out before that. As a movie lover that watch movies from every area, this mentality has always bugged me.

And the current generation isn't much better, imo. That's just how the general audience is.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Pkmatrix wrote:You'd think, but I've never heard a person under 40 say "I never watch movies older than me" and then shut down the conversation. Meanwhile, I've heard that statement again and again from my 40+ year old co-workers any time I bring up a movie older than, say, 1965. Anecdotal, sure, but that's my experience. Outside the fairly rare GenX nerd, the GenX people I've encountered or in my life either have no interest outside what's currently popular/immediately consumable or sports. Meanwhile, mention an older movie to a Millennial or Generation Z the first thing they say is, "I don't know that, hold on a minute let me look it up", whip out their phone, and either pull up the IMDB or Wikipedia page.
I got to start hanging out with people in your life now, because most young people I encounter wouldn't be caught dead watching a movie pre-1990.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Mr_Goji_and_Watch »

A bunch of millennials and zoomers refuse to watch anything made before the 90s, sometimes even the 2000s. Capeshit and TV is eroding their brains. Maybe they'll watch something from the 80s or 70s if it's referenced.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Shhh! The Octopus wrote:
Pkmatrix wrote:You'd think, but I've never heard a person under 40 say "I never watch movies older than me" and then shut down the conversation. Meanwhile, I've heard that statement again and again from my 40+ year old co-workers any time I bring up a movie older than, say, 1965. Anecdotal, sure, but that's my experience. Outside the fairly rare GenX nerd, the GenX people I've encountered or in my life either have no interest outside what's currently popular/immediately consumable or sports. Meanwhile, mention an older movie to a Millennial or Generation Z the first thing they say is, "I don't know that, hold on a minute let me look it up", whip out their phone, and either pull up the IMDB or Wikipedia page.
I got to start hanging out with people in your life now, because most young people I encounter wouldn't be caught dead watching a movie pre-1990.
Just like with any other generation, you gotta find yourself a group of nerds and movie buffs. Regular joe schmoes of all ages couldn't care less beyond "What's popular right this second?". People who actually like movies and really watch them, not just consume them and forget they ever existed after 20 seconds, tend to gravitate toward each other. This, unfortunately, can result in vast human deserts of people with no real interest in anything at all, which just leads to vague interests in whatever is currently popular.

Added in 1 minute 39 seconds:
Mr_Goji_and_Watch wrote:A bunch of millennials and zoomers refuse to watch anything made before the 90s, sometimes even the 2000s. Capeshit and TV is eroding their brains. Maybe they'll watch something from the 80s or 70s if it's referenced.
Lots of GenXers refuse to watch anything made before 1980, lots of Boomers refuse to watch anything made before 1960, so on and so forth.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by BlankAccount »

Shhh! The Octopus wrote:
Living Corpse wrote:some people don't wanna watch old movies
Yeah. Mostly Millennials and Generation Z's who can't spend 5 minutes not staring at their smart phones.
I see everyone, teens through old people on their smart phones. And people were refusing to watch old movies before smart phones were a thing.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by miguelnuva »

You know what I forgot this one had a lot of eye candy added it. Maybe it will do better box office wise.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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miguelnuva wrote:You know what I forgot this one had a lot of eye candy added it. Maybe it will do better box office wise.
And it comes out in election year. Not saying that will boost the box office, but what I mean is that their marketing could be real good and further make the movie seem like an event.

Added in 6 days 13 hours 53 minutes 18 seconds:
Using the Alien franchise as a comp, I see an opening weekend of, at the minimum, 70 million

I'm mainly basing it off Alien Resurrection. I chose this movie because it was after the less well received Alien 3 (47% audience score) which acts as G14 in this scenario since G14 wasn't quite well received by audiences (A3 opened at 20 million OW). Alien Resurrection acts as KOTM as it has a rotten rating (56% for AR) and opened lower than its predecessor at 16 million OW. Its OW for AR wasn't half of A3, so there is that going for it. Because of this, I will be leaning towards the more pessimistic approach when calculating GvK's totals. Anyhow...

Alien vs Predator had horrible reviews (21% RT score) yet opened at its highest in the Alien and Predator franchise of 38 million. So I simply divided 38 million by Alien Resurrection's OW of 16 million and got a 2.3 multiplier. Now, I'm leaning more towards pessimism because of the reason I mentioned in the paragraph above and the fact it's a different era so let's lower that multiplier to 1.5

So KOTM's OW times 1.5 equals to 70.5 million. I did lower the multiplier a lot, but I believe it won't open less than 70 million. Again, these are just my very primitive, early calculations.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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I think any predictions at this point are way too premature. We all thought KOTM would do much better than it did. Holding off for a while
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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How come Jurassic World opened with the biggest opening of all time for that time yet Godzilla movies don't do that well?

Aren't the target markets for both movies identical?

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Jeff-Goldblum2 wrote:How come Jurassic World opened with the biggest opening of all time for that time yet Godzilla movies don't do that well?

Aren't the target markets for both movies identical?
I think dinosaurs have a bit more mainstream and universal appeal (no pun intended) than Godzilla
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Godzilla21 wrote:
Jeff-Goldblum2 wrote:How come Jurassic World opened with the biggest opening of all time for that time yet Godzilla movies don't do that well?

Aren't the target markets for both movies identical?
I think dinosaurs have a bit more mainstream and universal appeal (no pun intended) than Godzilla
And much bigger nostalgia
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Jeff-Goldblum2 wrote:How come Jurassic World opened with the biggest opening of all time for that time yet Godzilla movies don't do that well?

Aren't the target markets for both movies identical?
Jurassic World starred Chris Pratt, who had just become a big star after Guardians of the Galaxy the previous summer. So the movie didn't rely just on the strength of the Jurassic Park franchise's brand, but also on Pratt's star power.

KOTM did not have anyone comparable, certainly not in either of the lead roles. The film tried to rely entirely on Godzilla's brand name to carry it, but that can only take you so far. I can't help wondering how much better KOTM might've done had they cast a similar big name actor to play Mark Russell rather than Kyle Chandler.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Pkmatrix wrote:
Jeff-Goldblum2 wrote:How come Jurassic World opened with the biggest opening of all time for that time yet Godzilla movies don't do that well?

Aren't the target markets for both movies identical?
Jurassic World starred Chris Pratt, who had just become a big star after Guardians of the Galaxy the previous summer. So the movie didn't rely just on the strength of the Jurassic Park franchise's brand, but also on Pratt's star power.

KOTM did not have anyone comparable, certainly not in either of the lead roles. The film tried to rely entirely on Godzilla's brand name to carry it, but that can only take you so far. I can't help wondering how much better KOTM might've done had they cast a similar big name actor to play Mark Russell rather than Kyle Chandler.
Yeah I agree, star power is a big factor in bringing audiences to see movies. It's kinda why the MCU is so successful because the people come in to see the famous actors play the characters. There's an Avengers game coming out that has avengers who look and sound different from the MCU and it's being ridiculed and I doubt it will be a phenomenal success.

The problem with giant monsters is that they aren't played by any actors who can become more and more famous and attract larger and larger audiences so we either need to have recurring good central human characters played by the same actor that can slowly gain more fame for the MV (I'm hoping MBB can become one as the Monsterverse progresses, especially with Stranger Things) or we can have already established actors playing human character roles in some of the movies. (A good chunk of of K:SI's main characters)

GvK unfortunately might end up facing a similar problem with a cast that normies won't be immediately attracted to. But Kong will most likely bring in more people than Ghidorah, Rodan, Mothra or arguably even Godzilla did, being more well-known in the west and also being memorable from Kong Skull Island happening 3 years instead of 5 years ago. So hopefully, the result won't be as bad as this one with a western monster to bring in audiences. (Plus there might be less competetion and the fallout of Endgame should be over by the time it's released)
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Pkmatrix wrote:Just like with any other generation, you gotta find yourself a group of nerds and movie buffs. Regular joe schmoes of all ages couldn't care less beyond "What's popular right this second?". People who actually like movies and really watch them, not just consume them and forget they ever existed after 20 seconds, tend to gravitate toward each other. This, unfortunately, can result in vast human deserts of people with no real interest in anything at all, which just leads to vague interests in whatever is currently popular.
Sadly I don't meet such people in real life, only on the net. For most people the only old movie they've seen is The Wizard of Oz, and a handful of the 80's flicks (Ghostbusters, Indiana Jones, Star Wars [technically 70's], Back to the Future, and maybe either an ET or Goonies here or there). Meanwhile here I am with my old Universal and Hammer horror DVDs or my Basil Rathbone Sherlock Holmes movies or just a few films with my fave actors of those old periods (Lon Chaney [silent Phantom of the Opera is still the best!], Lon Chaney Jr. Bela Lugosi, Boris Karloff, Vincent Price, you get the idea). Of course I still flock to certain genres, horror, mystery, thriller, sci-fi, adventure, but still at least within those genres when it came out isn't important. Many people my age would never watch a black and white film. But that's the nature of the general audience. But thankfully, we live in a time where it's never been easier to be a fan of old movies. I can order just about any old monster or detective movie off of Amazon like that. Never mind the bulk of my old movies collection was actually spur of the moment purchases at Wal-Mart. That's including the bulk of my Godzilla collection. So with the ease of things, maybe there'll be more of us film fans in the future, even if most people will always be mainly interested in just their generation of flicks.

Added in 11 minutes 47 seconds:
GuardianGhido wrote:Yeah I agree, star power is a big factor in bringing audiences to see movies. It's kinda why the MCU is so successful because the people come in to see the famous actors play the characters. There's an Avengers game coming out that has avengers who look and sound different from the MCU and it's being ridiculed and I doubt it will be a phenomenal success.
Really? Now even Marvel videogames has to look and sound like the MCU to garner interest and not ridicule? We can't even have separate takes on a decades old property without making it a clone of the movies?
God I hate people. And I love the MCU, but not everything Marvel has to be that!
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Vakanai wrote:
Pkmatrix wrote:Just like with any other generation, you gotta find yourself a group of nerds and movie buffs. Regular joe schmoes of all ages couldn't care less beyond "What's popular right this second?". People who actually like movies and really watch them, not just consume them and forget they ever existed after 20 seconds, tend to gravitate toward each other. This, unfortunately, can result in vast human deserts of people with no real interest in anything at all, which just leads to vague interests in whatever is currently popular.
Sadly I don't meet such people in real life, only on the net. For most people the only old movie they've seen is The Wizard of Oz, and a handful of the 80's flicks (Ghostbusters, Indiana Jones, Star Wars [technically 70's], Back to the Future, and maybe either an ET or Goonies here or there). Meanwhile here I am with my old Universal and Hammer horror DVDs or my Basil Rathbone Sherlock Holmes movies or just a few films with my fave actors of those old periods (Lon Chaney [silent Phantom of the Opera is still the best!], Lon Chaney Jr. Bela Lugosi, Boris Karloff, Vincent Price, you get the idea). Of course I still flock to certain genres, horror, mystery, thriller, sci-fi, adventure, but still at least within those genres when it came out isn't important. Many people my age would never watch a black and white film. But that's the nature of the general audience. But thankfully, we live in a time where it's never been easier to be a fan of old movies. I can order just about any old monster or detective movie off of Amazon like that. Never mind the bulk of my old movies collection was actually spur of the moment purchases at Wal-Mart. That's including the bulk of my Godzilla collection. So with the ease of things, maybe there'll be more of us film fans in the future, even if most people will always be mainly interested in just their generation of flicks.
I totally understand! :)

I always had an interest in movies, and was 9 when I got into Godzilla. I spent my entire childhood as the ONLY kid I knew who liked monster movies, old horror movies, action movies, anime, or really movies of any kind. Even among my friends, the closest any got was my one friend who was a big fan of cyberpunk and another who was really into fantasy.

I didn't meet other people who actually LIKED movies, who actually could talk at length about them, until I was well into my twenties. Most of my life I've been "that weirdo who knows pointless stuff about *gag* movies instead of important things like celebrity gossip or sports".

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Pkmatrix wrote:
Vakanai wrote:
Pkmatrix wrote:Just like with any other generation, you gotta find yourself a group of nerds and movie buffs. Regular joe schmoes of all ages couldn't care less beyond "What's popular right this second?". People who actually like movies and really watch them, not just consume them and forget they ever existed after 20 seconds, tend to gravitate toward each other. This, unfortunately, can result in vast human deserts of people with no real interest in anything at all, which just leads to vague interests in whatever is currently popular.
Sadly I don't meet such people in real life, only on the net. For most people the only old movie they've seen is The Wizard of Oz, and a handful of the 80's flicks (Ghostbusters, Indiana Jones, Star Wars [technically 70's], Back to the Future, and maybe either an ET or Goonies here or there). Meanwhile here I am with my old Universal and Hammer horror DVDs or my Basil Rathbone Sherlock Holmes movies or just a few films with my fave actors of those old periods (Lon Chaney [silent Phantom of the Opera is still the best!], Lon Chaney Jr. Bela Lugosi, Boris Karloff, Vincent Price, you get the idea). Of course I still flock to certain genres, horror, mystery, thriller, sci-fi, adventure, but still at least within those genres when it came out isn't important. Many people my age would never watch a black and white film. But that's the nature of the general audience. But thankfully, we live in a time where it's never been easier to be a fan of old movies. I can order just about any old monster or detective movie off of Amazon like that. Never mind the bulk of my old movies collection was actually spur of the moment purchases at Wal-Mart. That's including the bulk of my Godzilla collection. So with the ease of things, maybe there'll be more of us film fans in the future, even if most people will always be mainly interested in just their generation of flicks.
I totally understand! :)

I always had an interest in movies, and was 9 when I got into Godzilla. I spent my entire childhood as the ONLY kid I knew who liked monster movies, old horror movies, action movies, anime, or really movies of any kind. Even among my friends, the closest any got was my one friend who was a big fan of cyberpunk and another who was really into fantasy.

I didn't meet other people who actually LIKED movies, who actually could talk at length about them, until I was well into my twenties. Most of my life I've been "that weirdo who knows pointless stuff about *gag* movies instead of important things like celebrity gossip or sports".
I didn't really have that problem growing up. Partially because the bulk of my childhood I didn't have friends, partially because that part of my youth when I did have friends I had enough other interests besides movies to talk about, and I love such a wide swath of movies there was always some movie we could talk about. Did a whole spiel about one of my favorite movies of the 90's once during the 00's (Army of Darkness, still my favorite of the Evil Dead franchise). But luckily now we have easy access to the internet, I can always find someplace to gush about some old film I've either just rewatched or stumbled upon for the first time. That said as I've gotten older I want to talk about films I've seen less (I'm more into talking about speculation for future films now) and I'm more interested now in just watching those films again. Not that I can't still go into some paragraphs about what I love about Bela Lugosi's Dracula or what I loved about Christopher Lee's Dracula for example, but I'm more likely to just speculate about the next big screen Dracula we might get and then bust out one of my DVDs and have fun watching.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Box office mojo predicting $7.4 million weekend for Godzilla.

Only $28 million for MIB. Ouch. Or excuse me People In Black or Humans in Black like Tessa Thompson prefers
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Godzilla21 wrote:Box office mojo predicting $7.4 million weekend for Godzilla.

Only $28 million for MIB. Ouch. Or excuse me People In Black or Humans in Black like Tessa Thompson prefers
That's the thing too, Godzilla is obviously a failure but man, if you look at the 2 next casualties that came out after (Dark Phoenix and Men in black), it could have been so much worse. It's crazy!
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Shhh! The Octopus wrote:
Pkmatrix wrote:You'd think, but I've never heard a person under 40 say "I never watch movies older than me" and then shut down the conversation. Meanwhile, I've heard that statement again and again from my 40+ year old co-workers any time I bring up a movie older than, say, 1965. Anecdotal, sure, but that's my experience. Outside the fairly rare GenX nerd, the GenX people I've encountered or in my life either have no interest outside what's currently popular/immediately consumable or sports. Meanwhile, mention an older movie to a Millennial or Generation Z the first thing they say is, "I don't know that, hold on a minute let me look it up", whip out their phone, and either pull up the IMDB or Wikipedia page.
I got to start hanging out with people in your life now, because most young people I encounter wouldn't be caught dead watching a movie pre-1990.
People look at FilmStruck (now defunct) and say there's no market, but I think that's a bunch of malarkey. If Netflix can make rom-coms a thing again, like they did last summer, why not classic movies? Like fashion, what is old becomes new. If they started a true "classic movies" streaming section I think it would find its niche -- at least enough to justify its existence, along with Netflix's other offerings. I'm in my 30's and could watch The Bad Seed (1956) all day. And a certain other movie released in 1954.
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