Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby JGAR » Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:03 am

Hey guys!

I made this thread to discuss the box office run for Godzilla vs Kong. This includes putting in our own predictions, as well as talking about the buzz surrounding the film, the numbers it’s tracked to make on opening weekend, what it actually makes on opening weekend, it’s legs, etc. Saw the opportunity to make this thread now that Godzilla: King of the Monsters is out and we saw how that.....performed. :|

I wish it would hit a billion personally, but that’s a laughable impossibility now. With King of the Monsters disappointing everywhere box office wise, it’s harder to predict this now. It could be the highest grossing Monsterverse movie based on the title alone, the epic rematch between Godzilla and King Kong, but that might not mean anything really. Justice League united all the superhero icons - Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, etc - and it is the lowest DCEU film. Some people on BOT think that the reception both financially and even critically will rely on Kong, many are arguing that Godzilla simply isn’t as big or likable as King Kong is everywhere. I’m gonna make my first prediction for the film, before seeing the trailer, so it’s gonna be an educated guess but a shot in the dark.


OW (opening weekend): $70M
DOM (domestic): $200M
WW (worldwide): $600M


What do you guys think ?
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby kaijukurt » Mon Jun 03, 2019 3:34 am

OW: $70-80M
DOM: $170-200M (Releasing in March could mean less daily $ since we're not talking about summer weekdays)
WW: $550-650M

It goes without saying that the quality of the movie itself will play a huge role in building up a big debut.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Godzilla2000Zero » Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:12 am

Honestly no idea too many variables come happen between now and March
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby GuardianGhido » Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:26 am

It could go either ways at this point really. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst I guess. I'm not giving up just yet. People love Kong and it's coming soon after KOTM so hopefully GvK can at least score just enough to keep the MV afloat. Then hopefully low budget movies can keep it going. On the other hand, if GvK flops too, here's hoping it goes out with a bang being just as if not more entertaining as KOTM was and giving the short Monsteverse a good last hurrah. It will be bittersweet given all the potential that could go unusued (Mothra especailly) but at least we could look back on the amazing high budget monster movies we got to see.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Hokmuto » Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:31 am

OW- 80 million
Total domestic- 250 million
Worldwide total- 630 million

Now these numbers are totally out of my ass and what I hope. I would have to take into account its competition, marketing etc. way too early to truly predict a number.
Last edited by Hokmuto on Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby GodzillaFan1990's » Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:32 am

Honestly not holding my breath for 500-600 million given KotM's performance tbh.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby XxComablack1937xX » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:03 am

Opening weekend - 50$ million
Total domestic - 145$ million
International - 350$ million

Give or take it might barely cross the 500$ million if its lucky.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Mr_Goji_and_Watch » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:11 am

Around $450 million total WW
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Desghidorah » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:27 am

What's sort of competition are we looking at? I'm on mobile so it's hard to check.
Image

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Hokmuto » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:29 am

This is an extreme example but just look at the MCU. It has films that at best did 600 million and at worst did horrendous (250 WW). The movie prior to Avengers only did 370 million which is pretty much what KOTM will do around.

So not saying GvK will make a billion, but there could be some real big increase. I know we’re lowballing the number since we’re dealing with the KOTM underperformance right now, but you know, just food for thought.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby GuardianGhido » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:35 am

Hokmuto wrote:This is an extreme example but just look at the MCU. It has films that at best did 600 million and at worst did horrendous (250 WW). The movie prior to Avengers only did 370 million which is pretty much what KOTM will do around.

So not saying GvK will make a billion, but there could be some real big increase. I know we’re lowballing the number since we’re dealing with the KOTM underperformance right now, but you know, just food for thought.

Skreeonk man, sure hope so. I wish the Monsterverse was more active before this 5 year gap, maybe it would be a lot easier for it to grow with it being relevant in a less demanding environment that considers 400+ million ww a flop. MCU had room for error but at present, monsterverse doesn't. So yeah, if GvK doesn't pull of a miracle, bye bye to all that. Still at least we'll get some amazing movies to reminisce about and there's always Toho.
Last edited by GuardianGhido on Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Godzilla21 » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:24 pm

I'm not even gonna guess right now. I feel the MV brand has been tarnished now. I feel a Justice League situation I hate to say :(
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<=25% joke. >=75% topic. Even then - that's pushing it.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Hokmuto » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:30 pm

Godzilla21 wrote:I'm not even gonna guess right now. I feel the MV brand has been tarnished now. I feel a Justice League situation I hate to say :(

It’s not like audience hated and ridiculed it like Batman v Superman though. It just has a film that underperformed badly.

I think it’s too late for them to do the changes that Justice League experienced since GvK is less than a year away. All we can hope is that the characters are good and have a spotlight.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Godzilla21 » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:45 pm

Hokmuto wrote:
Godzilla21 wrote:I'm not even gonna guess right now. I feel the MV brand has been tarnished now. I feel a Justice League situation I hate to say :(

It’s not like audience hated and ridiculed it like Batman v Superman though. It just has a film that underperformed badly.

I think it’s too late for them to do the changes that Justice League experienced since GvK is less than a year away. All we can hope is that the characters are good and have a spotlight.


They haven't hated it or ridiculed it but the brand isn't exactly strong.
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<=25% joke. >=75% topic. Even then - that's pushing it.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Hokmuto » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:58 pm

Godzilla21 wrote:
Hokmuto wrote:
Godzilla21 wrote:I'm not even gonna guess right now. I feel the MV brand has been tarnished now. I feel a Justice League situation I hate to say :(

It’s not like audience hated and ridiculed it like Batman v Superman though. It just has a film that underperformed badly.

I think it’s too late for them to do the changes that Justice League experienced since GvK is less than a year away. All we can hope is that the characters are good and have a spotlight.


They haven't hated it or ridiculed it but the brand isn't exactly strong.

It has the potential to be. Also, that therefore means the brand isn’t “tarnished”. It’s just that it has a potential that is yet to be unlocked.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby LockBite » Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:03 pm

One thing to consider is that Godzilla KotM came out as kind of a fluke, and hit theaters on the infamously bad-for-box-office fifth year after the predecessor.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Godzilla21 » Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:05 pm

Hokmuto wrote:
Godzilla21 wrote:
Hokmuto wrote:It’s not like audience hated and ridiculed it like Batman v Superman though. It just has a film that underperformed badly.

I think it’s too late for them to do the changes that Justice League experienced since GvK is less than a year away. All we can hope is that the characters are good and have a spotlight.


They haven't hated it or ridiculed it but the brand isn't exactly strong.

It has the potential to be. Also, that therefore means the brand isn’t “tarnished”. It’s just that it has a potential that is yet to be unlocked.


Sure it has the potential. I just don't see Kong saving it at this point. The cast looks kind of weak. The general audience didn't really care for KOTM. Idk. I'm bearish at this point but hey, things can change. Maybe Comic Con next month can restart my hype
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<=25% joke. >=75% topic. Even then - that's pushing it.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby GuardianGhido » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:19 am

And even if this one doesn't do a stellar job, we can always hope the MV will be able to lay low with smalller projects, I doubt they'll let all this potential completely go to waste. Plus the cast might be weak but Kong can at least help get slightly bigger audiences than Godzilla and co who aren't as involved with the GA yet. So even if it doesn't do extremely well, I don't think it will suck.
Last edited by GuardianGhido on Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby vibramrunner » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:56 am

I don't feel like making a prediction. I Baragon'd myself with my own rainbow by predicting 750 mil the last time.. never again!

I do have a theory as to how markets predicted a 50 million-ish domestic opening months before it came out: Polling. A few years back I needed some quick cash, so I started an account on oneopinion.com, which will pay you for taking surveys. A lot -- and I do mean a lot -- of the surveys were movie-related. A lot of questions would show you a movie poster, usually for something showing 6 months out or so, and ask you questions like "how exciting are you for this movie on a scale of 1-10?" and, perhaps crucially, "how likely are to see this movie opening weekend on a scale of 1-10?" And before you say "well this is pretty random and it's probably not representative of the movie-going population as a whole," know also that many of these studies will thoroughly vet you before you qualify to even take the survey; they want to know that you're an avid movie-goer, so much so that they'll actually quiz you on recent movies! And, anecdotally, I follow blogs like fivethirtyeight pretty closely, and I can tell you there is a lot of money and influence in predictive polling (just look at Vegas books, for example).

Anyway, just my two cents, but I would bet my bottom dollar this is what happened. And I will not be scoffing at early projections next time.
Last edited by vibramrunner on Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:58 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Hokmuto » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:27 am

The thing that helped G14 was, among other things, the novelty of seeing America try again at making Godzilla with big special effects.

Godzilla vs Kong is in of itself going to be aided thanks to the novelty. Except this time, the general audience who has no clue about the kaiju genre will see this event as the first time it has ever happened. And, as said in the previous statement, they’ll see the film as an event.
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