Official Box Office Discussion Thread

[Jermobooka]

Eh, I’m not so much “tired with marvel” as I’m “just waiting for the actually interesting films/shows I want”.

Can’t really say that I was asking for stuff like Black Widow and The Eternals.

[Legion1979]

No...

C-Can it be? Are people finally getting tired of Marvel!?

Pigs are flying!!!!

Who the hell says that's what's actually happening?

[JAGzilla]

The Thor 4 trailer just didn't do anything to grab me. I'm interested in seeing the Guardians again, and in seeing if Natalie Portman can hold up as Thor, but it's not a movie I want to rush right out for. I've already seen two MCU movies this year, plus I have the backlog of D+ shows, so I won't lie and say there isn't a little bit of fatigue. I imagine a lot of people are in similar situations. Plus, yeah, there's just a lot of competition.

[Chrispy_G]

No...

C-Can it be? Are people finally getting tired of Marvel!?

Pigs are flying!!!!

Who the hell says that's what's actually happening?

It is absolutely what has happened, purely in Box Office terms.

When The Avengers jumped to $1.5 Billion, Iron Man 3 retained a lot of that growth with $1.2 Billion

Years later, hype and anticipation was so high for Infinity War and Endgame that even the "lead in films" that were the last to be released before IW and EG were able to surpass $1 Billion, Black Panther and Captain Marvel. The first film after Endgame, Far From Home, also surpassed $1 Billion and made even more than Captain Marvel.

Phase 4 had been DOA at the global box office for 3 films. Black Widow, Shang Chi and Eternals making among the lowest of the MCU films...despite having a decade of ticket price inflation on some entries.

No Way Home was the biggest move they could make and it was so massive mostly because of the Non-MCU elements which were included. That isn't a trick that they can keep pulling.

Multiverse of Madness and Love and Thunder...both with their overall lower critical/audience reception, their front loaded nature at the Box Office and their lower than anticipated final totals....prove that the afterglow is wearing off right in front of our eyes.

All of the hype and momentum was trying to put Doctor Strange as much on the level of No Way Home as possible, only for it to literally lose half the audience from that film.

Love and Thunder, an "easy $1 Billion" will likely fall even farther.

Is Black Panther: Wakanda Forever going to match or surpass the first film? Is The Marvels going to do the same? We will see but I have major doubts.

[Chrispy_G]

Pre-emptive weekend early projections
Thor: Love and Thunder with a 68% collapse to $46.5M

If that holds true. It would be a bigger % drop than Doctor Strange, and a lower 2nd weekend than Ragnarok.

We might be looking at a very real possibility where matching Doctor Strange isn't even the comparison...Love and Thunder might have to battle to match Ragnarok.

Minions north of $260M domestic, looking at $500M worldwide soon.

As Lightyear has slumped beyond $205M worldwide. Minions has made more in North America than Lightyear has in the entire world.

Maverick and Elvis both sporting above average holds this weekend. Shows that word of mouth is still the name of the game...we aren't just dealing with absurd drops for everything. People are going out to see certain films and seeing them again or convincing others to see them.

[Chrispy_G]

Latest updates on the top films of the year and the big hitters currently out

Top Gun: Maverick - $1.246 Billion
-Such a phenomenal run. Heck, this thing was at a phenomenal run $400M ago. It is still holding strong, and $1.3 Billion could very well be in its future. Between No Way Home making $1.9B and Maverick making $1.2B....you can't really argue that we are in a world of a lowered ceiling at the Box Office. "If you build it, they will come", audiences responded massively to two very different blockbusters released 6 months apart.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $954.3M
Despite the $450M opening it just could not make the final crawl to $1 Billion worldwide. There isn't much to say otherwise. Retaining half of the audience of No Way Home despite this film piggy-backing off of that film so heavily. It bought it the huge Iron Man 3 sized opening, but not Iron Man 3's $1.2 Billion total.

Jurassic World Dominion - $903.6M
Performing surprisingly well considering how much of a total mess the film was. Between current holdovers and the Japan release on July 29th, this film has a very real chance at passing Doctor Strange as the #2 film of the year. It is a shame it is battling for #2 because if this film had truly delivered, it would have been a lock for $1 Billion and beyond.

Interesting to compare the Star Wars Disney Trilogy and the Jurassic World Trilogy
Force Awakens - $2.069 Billion
Last Jedi - $1.332 Billion
Rise of Skywalker - $1.074 Billion
From the first film to the last film in the trilogy, there was a drop of $995M in sales, or 48.09% which is pretty devastating

Jurassic World - $1.671 Billion
Fallen Kingdom - $1.310 Billion
Dominion - $903.6 Million
From the first film to the last, there was a drop of $767.4M in sales, or just under 45.9% which is just about as bad. Dominion still has a little more money to make and has the edge in retained audience already.... but the performance of BOTH of these "Sequel Trilogies" is quite similar and will be interesting to compare.

In general, the response to both has had a bit of a similar evolution. A first entry that was massive initially, and generally liked, that audiences soured on a bit over time. A 2nd entry that was quite divisive, great to some, just fine to others, and terribly for some. A 3rd entry that felt like an absolute mess and a bit of a McGuffin chase, while overall not being too great of a conclusion to the saga.

The Batman - $770.8M
$770.8M with 2022 ticket prices, while The Dark Knight scored $1 Billion with 2008 prices. A 3 hour ultra-dark detective with splashes of modern day trendy politics seriously limits your ceiling.

Minions - $543.1M
Gets to call itself the biggest animated film of the year, and I don't think anything is coming with any hopes of outperforming it. This doesn't seem likely at all to climb all the way up to $1 Billion worldwide like the first film.

Thor: Love and Thunder - $505.1M
I think there is a very real chance that this will struggle to match the worldwide gross of Thor: Ragnarok at $853.9M

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore - $405.2M
This is a huge disappointment, and likely a film that lost quite a bit of money. I am curious what position this puts the "Wizarding World" in as Fantastic Beasts was meant to be a 5 film franchise. Do they take a gamble on the next entry when this one failed? Do they try to adjust so that the story is concluded in 4 films instead of 5 so that this series can at least be concluded?

If the "Wizarding World" goes from Harry Potter being one of the biggest franchises of the New Millennium to being one that isn't even successful enough to reach its conclusion, that's a BIG deal. It shows that "the world" is not always what is so appealing about these franchises. The Wizarding World isn't popular, Harry Potter and his story is popular.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $401.8M
The film has still yet to be released in Japan, but having grossed over $80M more than the first film is a huge feather in its cap, it shows that there is room for these franchises to grow their audiences in the modern market, if the quality is there.

Lightyear - $213M
This is an abysmal flop. Of Pixar movies that were actually given theatrical releases, this is the lowest grossing by over $100M...and this is a film born out of one of Pixar's Top Brands. Audiences are becoming MUCH more selective these days.

[H-Man]

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore - $405.2M
This is a huge disappointment, and likely a film that lost quite a bit of money. I am curious what position this puts the "Wizarding World" in as Fantastic Beasts was meant to be a 5 film franchise. Do they take a gamble on the next entry when this one failed? Do they try to adjust so that the story is concluded in 4 films instead of 5 so that this series can at least be concluded?

If the "Wizarding World" goes from Harry Potter being one of the biggest franchises of the New Millennium to being one that isn't even successful enough to reach its conclusion, that's a BIG deal. It shows that "the world" is not always what is so appealing about these franchises. The Wizarding World isn't popular, Harry Potter and his story is popular.

Is it really a problem with the Wizarding World itself? Or is it that a lot of people found the first two films--especially the second one--to be boring? I'm sure if the same level of magic and whimsy that the first three or four entries in HP films had been present in these movies, they would have been received better.

Moreover, it seems like the Love Interest was sidelined in the third movie, which doesn't seem like a good move, writing-wise.

On the same token, I wonder how much general audiences are affected by the lives of those involved with the series, from conservatives who don't like Rowling's liberal politics to progressives who don't think she's liberal enough (when it comes to Trans issues); or Johnny Depp supporters who might have been turned off by WB pressuring him to leave the series, while that small contingent of Amber Heard supporters not wanting anything to do with IP that Depp had touched.

[Chrispy_G]

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore - $405.2M
This is a huge disappointment, and likely a film that lost quite a bit of money. I am curious what position this puts the "Wizarding World" in as Fantastic Beasts was meant to be a 5 film franchise. Do they take a gamble on the next entry when this one failed? Do they try to adjust so that the story is concluded in 4 films instead of 5 so that this series can at least be concluded?

If the "Wizarding World" goes from Harry Potter being one of the biggest franchises of the New Millennium to being one that isn't even successful enough to reach its conclusion, that's a BIG deal. It shows that "the world" is not always what is so appealing about these franchises. The Wizarding World isn't popular, Harry Potter and his story is popular.

Is it really a problem with the Wizarding World itself? Or is it that a lot of people found the first two films--especially the second one--to be boring? I'm sure if the same level of magic and whimsy that the first three or four entries in HP films had been present in these movies, they would have been received better.

Moreover, it seems like the Love Interest was sidelined in the third movie, which doesn't seem like a good move, writing-wise.

On the same token, I wonder how much general audiences are affected by the lives of those involved with the series, from conservatives who don't like Rowling's liberal politics to progressives who don't think she's liberal enough (when it comes to Trans issues); or Johnny Depp supporters who might have been turned off by WB pressuring him to leave the series, while that small contingent of Amber Heard supporters not wanting anything to do with IP that Depp had touched.

Could certainly be a little bit of everything you mentioned. It isn't necessarily a malaise toward the brand or universe. Just an indicator that these Fantastic Beasts films are not hitting the same way and not connecting the same way, for any number of reasons.

I also think not EVERY hit franchise is going to have a spin off or prequel welcomed with open arms just because people liked the original work.

It is interesting. In the past it often felt like "outside stuff" didn't really impact movies. I remember there was a lot of "Tom Cruise is crazy" talk back in summer of 2005, but War of the Worlds was still big. Might it have been bigger without his antics? Who knows.

It would be interesting indeed if in today's world, the mass audiences at large ARE attuned enough and responsive enough that "outside factors" can make a difference.

If we are in a world where the actor or studio saying the wrong thing can create enough controversy to sink a movie or hurt it a lot. That's an interesting dynamic.

For years many celebs were encouraged to go on Twitter to help their brand and connection to fans. Now I wouldn't be shocked if some of them were being advised to put their phones down and shut the heck up.

[H-Man]

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore - $405.2M
This is a huge disappointment, and likely a film that lost quite a bit of money. I am curious what position this puts the "Wizarding World" in as Fantastic Beasts was meant to be a 5 film franchise. Do they take a gamble on the next entry when this one failed? Do they try to adjust so that the story is concluded in 4 films instead of 5 so that this series can at least be concluded?

If the "Wizarding World" goes from Harry Potter being one of the biggest franchises of the New Millennium to being one that isn't even successful enough to reach its conclusion, that's a BIG deal. It shows that "the world" is not always what is so appealing about these franchises. The Wizarding World isn't popular, Harry Potter and his story is popular.

Is it really a problem with the Wizarding World itself? Or is it that a lot of people found the first two films--especially the second one--to be boring? I'm sure if the same level of magic and whimsy that the first three or four entries in HP films had been present in these movies, they would have been received better.

Moreover, it seems like the Love Interest was sidelined in the third movie, which doesn't seem like a good move, writing-wise.

On the same token, I wonder how much general audiences are affected by the lives of those involved with the series, from conservatives who don't like Rowling's liberal politics to progressives who don't think she's liberal enough (when it comes to Trans issues); or Johnny Depp supporters who might have been turned off by WB pressuring him to leave the series, while that small contingent of Amber Heard supporters not wanting anything to do with IP that Depp had touched.

Could certainly be a little bit of everything you mentioned. It isn't necessarily a malaise toward the brand or universe. Just an indicator that these Fantastic Beasts films are not hitting the same way and not connecting the same way, for any number of reasons.

I also think not EVERY hit franchise is going to have a spin off or prequel welcomed with open arms just because people liked the original work.

It is interesting. In the past it often felt like "outside stuff" didn't really impact movies. I remember there was a lot of "Tom Cruise is crazy" talk back in summer of 2005, but War of the Worlds was still big. Might it have been bigger without his antics? Who knows.

It would be interesting indeed if in today's world, the mass audiences at large ARE attuned enough and responsive enough that "outside factors" can make a difference.

If we are in a world where the actor or studio saying the wrong thing can create enough controversy to sink a movie or hurt it a lot. That's an interesting dynamic.

For years many celebs were encouraged to go on Twitter to help their brand and connection to fans. Now I wouldn't be shocked if some of them were being advised to put their phones down and shut the heck up.

I'm pretty sure that if a celebrity posted something on Twitter and online outlets DIDN'T treat it like a real story, it would probably affect people less. But then again, many outlets would cease to have a purpose. You had to subscribe to magazines and watch Entertainment Tonight to get a fraction of the stuff we're inundated with today. Obviously, people are allowed to have their opinions. My dad didn't care for left-wingers like Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon back in the day, but he appreciated their craft and enjoyed some of their films. But we're not in the 90s anymore. Politics is reaching a point where each side honestly feels the other is serving the Devil (there have been academic studies about this). Because of that, people on both sides almost feel like it's a moral imperative to avoid and boycott anything that goes against their own moral stances.

We might use the new Buzz Lightyear movie as an example. I'm sure that if the Media had been silent about the same-sex kiss in it, the frontloaded nature of Hollywood business would have guaranteed a better opening...at least until word of mouth got around. But online news outlets had been announcing it from the housetops for months before its releases, so it gave more conservative parents time to decide that they didn't want to take their children to see it (let's not hijack this thread to discuss the rightness or wrongness of the parents' actions).

Re: Tom Cruise - I think some of his antics affected a few of his films. I believe The Last Samurai underperformed. I recall some critics saying that his willingness to play the villain in Collateral helped him win back some of his lost audience. Cruise has also benefitted from his "Reverse Jackie Chan" approach to action filmmaking, in which the older he gets, the crazier the stunts he's willing to perform get.

Re: The Wizarding World - I suppose you can also argue that J.K. Rowling's approach to having her world "grow up" together with the first generation of Harry Potter readers may not be the best idea from a moneymaking perspective. She's obviously welcome to treat her own creations the way she wishes, but returning to the well isn't always a good thing. Personally, I think she should have published her Fantastic Beasts stories as books first, and then screenwriters would have been able to see what subplots and extraneous characters needed to be trimmed and what flaws discussed by critics and fans could have been treated.

[Chrispy_G]

Top 5 Worldwide of 2022
1. Top Gun: Maverick - $1.283 Billion
-Unbelievable. I remember when the film potentially letting out to $1 Billion was seen as a monumental testament to the word of mouth and staying power of the film. At this point $1.3B is all but ensured.

2. Doctor Strange - $954.3M
-Surprisingly, might not be holding onto the #2 spot for very long

3. Jurassic World Dominion - $920.8M
-Surprising that a movie this underwhelming has still managed to pull audiences in like this. It releases in Japan on July 29th. The first two JW films made over $70M in Japan each. Dominion could make HALF as much in Japan and still secure the #2 worldwide spot. Deadline thinks $1B is in play, I'm not so sure as this would REALLY have to perform well in Japan and wrap up its run everywhere else with solid legs...getting all the way to $1B feels like a stretch to me...but $955M+ seems like a lock.

4. The Batman - $770.8M
The #4 spot is safe until basically the end of the year.

5. Minions: Rise of Gru - $640.2M
Holding up well and I don't think there is much debate about this being the runaway #1 animated film of the year

Honorable mentions
Lightyear - The film is basically finished at $214M it has virtually nothing left in the tank

Thor: Love and Thunder - $598.6M
When $1B was the talk of the town, this film failed by a wide margin to touch the $950M of Doctor Strange. It will fail by a wide margin to touch the $854M of the 3rd film, Thor: Ragnarok, it will almost certainly fail to touch the $770M made by The Batman earlier this year.

Shockingly, it is even taking a while to pass the $644.7M made by Thor: The Dark World all the way back in 2013. It WILL pass The Dark World, that isn't up for debate. Yet it may end up with a total that is closer to The Dark World than it is to Ragnarok. That is shocking to consider when "as much as or more than Ragnarok" seemed like it was expected by many.

[Legion1979]

Uh, it's not 2020.

[Chrispy_G]

Uh, it's not 2020.

A typo. As always, you make a valued contribution to the conversation.

[Chrispy_G]

Looking at the numbers, Thor: Love and Thunder likely won't make as much as Minions in North America despite a much larger opening weekend.

[Legion1979]

Looking at the numbers, Thor: Love and Thunder likely won't make as much as Minions in North America despite a much larger opening weekend.

And...?

[Chrispy_G]

Looking at the numbers, Thor: Love and Thunder likely won't make as much as Minions in North America despite a much larger opening weekend.

And...?

And what? It's a Box Office observation in the Box Office thread. There isn't a narrative. I'm making comments based on the facts.

[Voyager]

Looking at the numbers, Thor: Love and Thunder likely won't make as much as Minions in North America despite a much larger opening weekend.

And...?

What kind of response is this? Did you see what thread you’re in?

[H-Man]

So, the League of Super-Pets comes out this weekend. If it underwhelms, can we conclude that the Superhero Run is indeed losing steam?

[JAGzilla]

So, the League of Super-Pets comes out this weekend. If it underwhelms, can we conclude that the Superhero Run is indeed losing steam?

No. It's way too early for that. If, say, the next five movies underperform, then you might have something. If the Avengers or X-Men relaunches fail, that's significant. A B-list hero like Dr. Strange in a movie being boycotted by homophobes slightly underperforming isn't a big deal, and the trailers for LaT were boring. There doesn't seem to have been much of a marketing push for it in general, really. Let's wait for some heavy hitters to come out, and see how they do.

[Legion1979]

So, the League of Super-Pets comes out this weekend. If it underwhelms, can we conclude that the Superhero Run is indeed losing steam?

I got a laugh out of this, and I hope that was your intent.

[H-Man]

It appears that that the League of Superpets opened to 23 million USD domestic and 41.4 million worldwide. In comparison to the first weekends of other animated films this year:

1. Minions 2: The Rise of Gru - 107 million USD
2. Lightyear - 50.6 million USD
3. The Bad Guys - 24 million USD
4. League of Superpets - 23 million USD
5. Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank - 6.3 million USD