The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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MrRockett
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby MrRockett » Fri May 24, 2019 10:55 am

AtomicMorningBreath wrote:Box Office Pro has posted their latest tracking...no changes for GKOTM. Still $54 million OW and $144 million domestic total.

The number of estimated theaters did go up from 3,900 to 4,100. So that's good.

Rocketman's projections went down slightly.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range ... lion-king/


Interesting that in theater comparisons I've done, one published here, KOTM has a higher presale # of tickets sold as well as total gross sales over Aladdin the night before it opened. What bothers me thought about numbers is the fact they seem to calculate the "3 Day Weekend" similar to a normal weekend. The numbers should be Open on Thrusday night to midnight Sunday.

Whatever, I'm still feeling that we will have a higher OW haul than these guys predict.

Rocketman going down doesn't surprise me....the numbers of pre-sale I've seen have been terrible thus far.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby AtomicMorningBreath » Fri May 24, 2019 11:02 am

MrRockett wrote:
AtomicMorningBreath wrote:Box Office Pro has posted their latest tracking...no changes for GKOTM. Still $54 million OW and $144 million domestic total.

The number of estimated theaters did go up from 3,900 to 4,100. So that's good.

Rocketman's projections went down slightly.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range ... lion-king/


Interesting that in theater comparisons I've done, one published here, KOTM has a higher presale # of tickets sold as well as total gross sales over Aladdin the night before it opened. What bothers me thought about numbers is the fact they seem to calculate the "3 Day Weekend" similar to a normal weekend. The numbers should be Open on Thrusday night to midnight Sunday.

Whatever, I'm still feeling that we will have a higher OW haul than these guys predict.

Rocketman going down doesn't surprise me....the numbers of pre-sale I've seen have been terrible thus far.


I agree that it will certainly do well above the $54 million projection. It seems that Box Office Pro just really doesn't have a good grasp on predicting monster films. Not to mention it's been a wonky year so far for the box office. Everything seems so unpredictable that they are just playing it conservatively.

I don't remember what actual numbers I predicted, but personally I'm still going with slightly lower opening weekend and overall higher domestic gross for KOTM compared to G14.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Pkmatrix » Fri May 24, 2019 11:05 am

MrRockett wrote:
AtomicMorningBreath wrote:Box Office Pro has posted their latest tracking...no changes for GKOTM. Still $54 million OW and $144 million domestic total.

The number of estimated theaters did go up from 3,900 to 4,100. So that's good.

Rocketman's projections went down slightly.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range ... lion-king/


Interesting that in theater comparisons I've done, one published here, KOTM has a higher presale # of tickets sold as well as total gross sales over Aladdin the night before it opened. What bothers me thought about numbers is the fact they seem to calculate the "3 Day Weekend" similar to a normal weekend. The numbers should be Open on Thrusday night to midnight Sunday.

Whatever, I'm still feeling that we will have a higher OW haul than these guys predict.

Rocketman going down doesn't surprise me....the numbers of pre-sale I've seen have been terrible thus far.


Box Office Pro's devotion to Rocketman is kinda hilarious, honestly. Most anyplace else I've seen talk about that movie seems to think it'll open between $25M and $30M, while BOP has been reluctant to offer a forecast less than $40M. While it's been interesting following what they think each week for the last couple of months, I've been taking it with a grain of salt ever since they published their first predictions for KOTM and then compared it with their record forecasting G'14, K:SI, and Rampage.

At this point, I'm just going to wait until Box Office Mojo - a site I trust far more - has their say next week.

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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Cookson » Fri May 24, 2019 11:12 am

To me 50m ow is the floor and 80m ow is the ceiling. We’ll start getting a better idea next week.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Hokmuto » Fri May 24, 2019 11:17 am

Yeah, this movie is not opening to 54 million OW. The ticket presales have been stronger than Detective Pikachu which did, you guessed it, 54 million OW. I see this film doing 65-75 million OW.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby vibramrunner » Fri May 24, 2019 11:20 am

Anyone else see Pets 2 has a 52 metacritic score right now (side note: I really, really hope Tiffany Haddish's 15 minutes are up)? This is probably the best we could've hoped for: Middling reviews for Aladdin, Pets and constant bad vibes from Phoenix. Rocketman's gotten generally favorable reviews, but it's also a non-comic book R movie, which means it is a minimal threat anyway. You really couldn't ask for a better break, now KOTM just has to knock it out of the park.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Godzilla21 » Fri May 24, 2019 11:24 am

Still standing by my prediction of $75 million+
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby XxComablack1937xX » Fri May 24, 2019 11:25 am

Box Office Pro don't know poop... Godzilla will easily open between 60$ and 80$ million.

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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby vibramrunner » Fri May 24, 2019 11:26 am

I'll say 70 mil with strong legs. Will be interesting to revisit this in a week and a half.

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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby AtomicMorningBreath » Fri May 24, 2019 11:26 am

KOTM is gonna go through the box office like crap through a goose!

...sorry, couldn't resist.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Gothicserpent » Fri May 24, 2019 12:01 pm

So either BOP has no idea what they're talking about or KOTM is going to bomb hard.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Godzilla21 » Fri May 24, 2019 12:08 pm

Gothicserpent wrote:So either BOP has no idea what they're talking about or KOTM is going to bomb hard.


Umm lol.

Even at $54 million opening its not in the "bomb hard" territory but it would be disappointing. You have to factor in international which is where the movie will make much more money. A lot of big films have been saved by international after a soft domestic performance.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby gridiron_kaiju » Fri May 24, 2019 12:10 pm

Gothicserpent wrote:So either BOP has no idea what they're talking about or KOTM is going to bomb hard.


Excuse me? Since when is $50+ million OW considered “bombing hard” for any movie?

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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Gyaos » Fri May 24, 2019 12:13 pm

gridiron_kaiju wrote:
Gothicserpent wrote:So either BOP has no idea what they're talking about or KOTM is going to bomb hard.


Excuse me? Since when is $50+ million OW considered “bombing hard” for any movie?


When a movie has the budget of KOTM and when the first film made much more.

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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Godzilla21 » Fri May 24, 2019 12:14 pm

Gyaos wrote:
gridiron_kaiju wrote:
Gothicserpent wrote:So either BOP has no idea what they're talking about or KOTM is going to bomb hard.


Excuse me? Since when is $50+ million OW considered “bombing hard” for any movie?


When a movie has the budget of KOTM and when the first film made much more.


Thats still not a bomb hard. Scroll up to read my example.

I get people are trolling here but at least be creative with it.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby vibramrunner » Fri May 24, 2019 12:26 pm

Gyaos wrote:
gridiron_kaiju wrote:
Gothicserpent wrote:So either BOP has no idea what they're talking about or KOTM is going to bomb hard.


Excuse me? Since when is $50+ million OW considered “bombing hard” for any movie?


When a movie has the budget of KOTM and when the first film made much more.


With good legs, which G'14 did not have, KOTM could still easily surpass it.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby JGAR » Fri May 24, 2019 12:43 pm

Aladdin is becoming another Bohemian Rhapsody/Venom in terms of critics not reflecting the audience reception at all.

I’m actually getting worried now.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Gothicserpent » Fri May 24, 2019 12:48 pm

$54 mil opening for a $200 million dollar movie is TERRIBLE. And we don't even know what its legs will be.

This isn't trolling. This is justifiable worry.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby AtomicMorningBreath » Fri May 24, 2019 12:50 pm

JGAR wrote:Aladdin is becoming another Bohemian Rhapsody/Venom in terms of critics not reflecting the audience reception at all.

I’m actually getting worried now.


Check out the other audience score as well. RT just updated their site so the high 92% are only verified ticket purchasers. If you view all audience reactions it's only at 82%. Of course, some of those reviews may not be legit because they are not verified, but the 92% that is right in your face doesn't tell the entire story.
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Re: The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Postby Godzilla21 » Fri May 24, 2019 1:14 pm

Gothicserpent wrote:$54 mil opening for a $200 million dollar movie is TERRIBLE. And we don't even know what its legs will be.

This isn't trolling. This is justifiable worry.


Its not terrible. Hellboy just finished its domestic run with $21 million total. That is a terrible run.

You can't seem to grasp something called the BIG PICTURE. I'll explain again. Even if the movie opened at $54 million if you have positive reviews the movie will have legs and perform well. You also have overseas where money made in places like China and India are more than ever. So a $54 million opening would be disappointing but not TERRIBLE if you consider other factors.

Maybe just calming down and taking a wait and see approach may be a little more constructive than doom and gloom?
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