Box Office Discussion: Anime Trilogy

[Showa Gyaos]

I'm curious to see how its legs are.

I think this could have a fairly respectable run. If it hits $20 million, that's even better. But it needs good legs. I have no idea what people are saying about this except "It's not Shin Godzilla," which means nothing to me because that was obvious from the beginning...

[Cookson]

We'll have to see what kind of legs it has(like you said Showa gyaos). Right now, with what I'm seeing, it'll open somewhere between 2-3m(3 day). It's not doing anything spectacular like Shin Godzilla did. I think it hitting 10m would be a win for Toho as I guarantee the budget for all 3 films probably doesn't even hit 5m. If this hits 15-20m Toho will probably be jumping with joy. Anime films in Japan are such easy money.

[Tohosaurus]

Probably cause the west is still behind on the times and thinks all animation is for kids.

It actually wasn't like that way, way back. If you read up on the Fleischer vs Disney days, quite amazing. Maybe we'll return to animation being that well regarded some day, but that's for another thread.

[BlankAccount]

Probably cause the west is still behind on the times and thinks all animation is for kids.

It actually wasn't like that way, way back. If you read up on the Fleischer vs Disney days, quite amazing. Maybe we'll return to animation being that well regarded some day, but that's for another thread.

I know, Loony Toons had some pretty adult humor and racist jokes back in the day.

[Cookson]

Doesn't look like it hit 1m on Saturday. Total(without Sunday) is around 1.25m. don't think it'll hit 2m for the weekend. Looks like a 10m film, unless it displays some impressive legs.

[Mr_Goji_and_Watch]

Doesn't seem like it will be a big success, but hopefully the trilogy becomes profitable in the end.

[Showa Gyaos]

With a debut that low, it could struggle to reach $10 million. Corpse on World of KJ says it could open with $1.1 million.

For a comparison, Godzilla vs. Megaguirus was the last film to open with such a low gross. However, like others have said, it's just the first of several films with a combined production budget. Also, it's November. Pretty typical in Japan for films to have underwhelming openings.

[Gawdziller1954]

With a debut that low, it could struggle to reach $10 million. Corpse on World of KJ says it could open with $1.1 million.

For a comparison, Godzilla vs. Megaguirus was the last film to open with such a low gross. However, like others have said, it's just the first of several films with a combined production budget. Also, it's November. Pretty typical in Japan for films to have underwhelming openings.

IIRC, G2K made around 12 million worldwide on a December release, so you may have a point there.

[Cookson]

With a debut that low, it could struggle to reach $10 million. Corpse on World of KJ says it could open with $1.1 million.

For a comparison, Godzilla vs. Megaguirus was the last film to open with such a low gross. However, like others have said, it's just the first of several films with a combined production budget. Also, it's November. Pretty typical in Japan for films to have underwhelming openings.

Yes, corpse at World of KJ is a great source for the Japanese box office. He also mentioned that this debuted in only 158 theaters, which shows Toho released this as a non blockbuster, but as a late night anime... Which I find pretty interesting why they did that. Big blockbuster films release to about 300 theaters.

The 1.1 seems a tad low though for a 3 day, unless ticket prices for this are very small. I still see this at 1.25m currently.

Edit: his 1.1m total is for Saturday and Sunday only. Not including Friday.

[Tohosaurus]

Odd that Toho didn't make this more of a major movie, but maybe they're hoping to avoid fatigue for the character.

[Cookson]

I'm not really sure what the point of not making these films a big release was. Not understanding Toho there. All three films will be lucky to combine for 15m total. We have to look at the three films as one vs individual releases since Toho has decided to make these more a limited style release. It's possible ticket prices are more, so these totals coming from Corpse may actually be off. We'll see.

We're literally talking about a 1m budget per film most likely... So this first film will make that 3m budget back. With merchandise included, the Monster Planet movies will still turn in a profit. Just not nearly as clear as Shin Godzilla.

Added in 5 minutes 30 seconds:

Odd that Toho didn't make this more of a major movie, but maybe they're hoping to avoid fatigue for the character.

It was recently revealed by one of the directors recently on twitter that this series was originally going to be a television show with 30 minute episodes. With Shin Godzillas success, Toho changed that to three 1 hour and a half movies. They're getting more money this way. Though why Toho didn't push more and made this a limited style release is confusing.

[Xx_The_Masquerade_xX]

I don't blame them, i honestly have no interest in this what-so-ever.

It's probably the only thing Toho Godzilla related that i could careless and kind of wished this would skipped till we get KOM in 2019.

Maybe i'll catch it eventually, it's not anything i'm looking forward to.

[Cookson]

Shin Godzilla opened to 448 theater compared to Monster Planets 149. Considering that, I think this opening is actually ok enough.

[King of the Monsters]

A lot of people, myself included, think that Toho is more or less banking on the global Netflix release, and only gave it a Japanese theatrical release to squeeze out a little more revenue. Not to mention it's only part one of a trilogy that was likely produced simultaneously. Planet of the Monsters probably cost substantially less than Shin Godzilla anyway, so Toho doesn't need it to perform to that film's level.

[Cookson]

A lot of people, myself included, think that Toho is more or less banking on the global Netflix release, and only gave it a Japanese theatrical release to squeeze out a little more revenue. Not to mention it's only part one of a trilogy that was likely produced simultaneously. Planet of the Monsters probably cost substantially less than Shin Godzilla anyway, so Toho doesn't need it to perform to that film's level.

No doubt. They probably got back most of the trilogies budget back with the Netflix deal.

Added in 6 hours 47 minutes 14 seconds:
Week 1:

Weekend Actuals (11/18-19)
01 (02) ¥194,733,500 ($1.7 million), -14%, ¥1,144,577,400 ($10.2 million), IT (Warner Bros.) WK3
02 (01) ¥141,596,100 ($1.3 million), -53%, ¥731,421,100 ($6.5 million), High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku) WK2
03 (---) ¥102,830,000 ($918,000), 0, ¥144,192,500 ($1.3 million), Godzilla: Planet of Monsters (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥89,000,100 ($796,000), 0, ¥89,000,100 ($796,000), The Stand-In Thief (Showgate) NEW
05 (03) ¥83,878,400 ($749,000), -39%, ¥937,800,900 ($8.2 million), Thor: Ragnarok (Disney) WK3
06 (05) ¥70,791,900 ($632,000), -30%, ¥780,390,600 ($7.0 million), The Last Recipe (Toho) WK3
07 (04) ¥64,491,800 ($576,000), -37%, ¥203,784,840 ($1.8 million), Is the Order a Rabbit? Dear My Sister (Showgate) WK2
08 (---) ¥59,640,600 ($532,000), 0, ¥59,640,600 ($532,000), Logan Lucky (Sony/Star Channel) NEW
09 (07) ¥59,630,900 ($532,000), -29%, ¥653,805,500 ($5.8 million), Kirakira ☆ Precure: With Paris! Mille-Feuille of Memories (Toei) WK4
10 (06) ¥59,345,600 ($529,000), -29%, ¥1,267,404,200 ($11.1 million), Mix (Toho) WK5
11 (08) ¥52,202,500 ($466,000), -34%, ¥1,012,435,600 ($9.0 million), Blade Runner 2049 (Sony) WK4
12 (09) ¥42,529,700 ($379,000), -30%, ¥872,980,150 ($7.6 million), The Disastrous Life of Saiki K (Sony/Asmik Ace) WK5

[The Octopus]

I don't blame them, i honestly have no interest in this what-so-ever.

Me neither. I've been a Godzilla fan since 1978. and I have no desire to watch a Godzilla cartoon. Part of the appeal to me was that Godzilla was live-action. I don't think I'll even catch this on Netflix.

Anyway does anyone know the ticket numbers sold?

Edit. Never mind I found the link
http://www.godzilla-movies.com/topic/47045

Right now its 71,205 tickets sold.

[Cookson]

With the daily data you can collect from https://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/?sp ** it looks like Godzilla Monster Planet will be around 2.5m after Sunday. It dropped 70% and 60% from last Friday and Saturday. Not great, but there was a holiday last Thursday that might have skewed those numbers.

Look, this was never going to be a big success like Shin Godzilla. This feels more like Warner Bros released a cartoon Batman movie. The theater count was way down. This was more of a "secondary" Godzilla release for quick cash grabs while we wait for the "main" series to come back... Legendary and Shin Godzilla 2.

With what we know now(it originally was going to be a TV show etc.), with each film making 5m each(hopefully), the Netflix deal and merchandise sales, this quick trilogy will turn in a profit. The budget for each film is most likely only 1m. The first film itself will cover that.

** I'm not going to go into detail how you can get totals from this info.

Added in 16 minutes 53 seconds:

Even if the film itself turns out solid, I am not that sure about the box office performance in Japan. Look out how Batman: Mask of the Phantasm as an animated adaptation coexisting with a live action stream of Batman films turned out back in the day.

The funny this is, this is basically what this Monster Series of movies is apparently. It's not getting as many theaters as its live action counterparts have. Monster Planet and its sequels are basically here to expand the IP of the franchise, and not meant to be huge like the live action films. Though, it's obvious Toho thought they could squeeze more out of this with Shins success. They were wrong, but it'll still turn a profit.

Added in 18 hours 36 minutes 32 seconds:
Yeah, it dropped to number 5 for the weekend with a 57% drop. The holiday from Thursday skewed the weekend numbers for all films besides IT(having a great run there). Should be around 2.5m total.

[vibramrunner]

I don't know how relevant this is, but if you look at another recent Netflix release, Mudbound, you'll see that it also had a very limited theatrical release. In fact, any Netflix original has a very limited theatrical release, if at all. I wonder if this is done not because there's a fear that these movies won't be successful, but that Netflix prioritizes revenue from their own streaming service. In other words, they may not want a large theater audience bleeding into their streaming revenue. Okja, for example, didn't even have a theater release that I'm aware of -- and yet it had a budget of 50 million. Clearly, Netflix can make all that back and then some they will have produced over 1,000 hours of original content by the end of 2017 alone*.

*I'm assuming Monster Planet does constitute an original release because it's being done by Polygon, the same production group responsible for Blame! and Knights of Sidonia which were released exclusively on Netflix.

[Cookson]

Blame! was also very limited then released on Netflix soon after.

Added in 9 hours 12 minutes 31 seconds:
From Corpse:

Weekend Actuals (11/25-26)
01 (---) ¥204,425,500 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥431,811,900 ($3.9 million), Justice League (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥148,935,200 ($1.3 million), -23%, ¥1,526,836,200 ($13.6 million), IT (Warner Bros.) WK4
03 (---) ¥111,195,800 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥218,885,700 ($2.0 million), Hibana: Spark (Toho) NEW
04 (02) ¥84,455,900 ($759,000), -40%, ¥930,465,300 ($8.3 million), High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku) WK3
(03) ¥47,294,500 ($425,000), -54%, ¥280,554,600 ($2.5 million), Godzilla: Planet of Monsters (Toho) WK2
06 (06) ¥43,493,900 ($391,000), -39%, ¥925,270,500 ($8.3 million), The Last Recipe (Toho) WK4
07 (04) ¥41,665,900 ($374,000), -53%, ¥217,034,200 ($1.9 million), The Stand-In Thief (Showgate) WK2
08 (07) ¥35,430,500 ($319,000), -45%, ¥267,151,640 ($2.3 million), Is the Order a Rabbit? Dear My Sister (Showgate) WK3
09 (14) ¥35,195,600 ($317,000), -03% , ¥1,350,933,280 ($12.0 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel, Ch. I - Presage Flower (Aniplex) WK7
10 (10) ¥35,062,400 ($316,000), -41%, ¥1,369,378,200 ($12.1 million), Mix (Toho) WK6
11 (05) ¥34,779,600 ($313,000), -60%, ¥1,052,214,300 ($9.3 million), Thor: Ragnarok (Disney) WK4
12 (---) ¥33,810,760 ($304,000), 0, ¥33,810,760 ($304,000), Kaiketsu Zorori Movie: 30th Anniversary (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW

>Justice League becomes the first DC film to ever debut atop the box office in Japan (at least since 1990), but its opening weekend is also lower than every other film currently in the DCEU (as seen in my previous post). Over the weekend frame, the DC team-up only sold 133,500 admissions on 639 screens, and the early release on Thursday has brought its four-day admissions up to 285,373 admissions.

All of the DCEU films have at least managed to exceed the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone, and this one should as well, but it'll probably finish with just ¥1.1/1.2 billion ($10/11 million).

>IT falls to second place after rising to first place in its third weekend last week, but still managed to post a great hold in its fourth weekend. The film has exceeded 1.1 million admissions, and is well on its way to exceeding the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone and becoming one of the highest-grossing horror films of all-time.

>Hibana: Spark certainly disappointing, and isn't the way Toho wants November to end for them. The live-action adaptation of the tv drama based on the Hibana novel only sold 82,404 admissions over the weekend frame across 318 screens, bringing its four-day admissions up to 164,513 admissions since opening on Thursday.

>Godzilla: Planet of Monsters experienced a rough second weekend drop, suggesting it'll only finish with around ¥500 million ($4-4.5 million). As I've mentioned several times, the release of the film made it clear that Toho wasn't expecting much from the film, but at the same time, a total well below even ¥1 billion seems disappointing.

>Thor: Ragnarok suffered a harsh drop in its fourth week following severe screen/showtime cuts, and dropped out of the Top 10; however, it has exceeded the ¥1 billion milestone, becoming the first film in the series to reach the mark and will outgross MCU own Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 from earlier this year.

Added in 19 hours 27 minutes 41 seconds:
There's a chance it might get kicked out of the top 10 this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if Toho did a double feature with this and Shin Godzilla to help boost these numbers.

Added in 18 hours 52 minutes 15 seconds:
Will be at 3.1/3.2 after this weekend. Fell another 47%. Better hold, and it needs to continue to hold better as it's looking at a 4-4.5m finish. Good thing is, this first film got the budget back for all three films, so the next two will be straight profit most likely.

[Showa Gyaos]

Not trying to steal Cookson's thunder, but actuals were released. $4.5 million could be a struggle at this point.

Weekend Actuals (12/02-03)
01 (---) ¥264,065,100 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥373,330,500 ($3.3 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (---) ¥148,930,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥207,717,200 ($1.8 million), Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei) WK2
03 (01) ¥112,195,400 ($1.0 million), -45%, ¥732,128,700 ($6.6 million), Justice League (Warner Bros.) WK2
04 (02) ¥106,064,500 ($941,000), -28%, ¥1,758,861,600 ($15.7 million), IT (Warner Bros.) WK5
05 (03) ¥74,250,400 ($658,000), -33%, ¥441,049,900 ($3.9 million), Hibana: Spark (Toho) WK2
06 (04) ¥43,606,200 ($387,000), -49%, ¥1,027,651,200 ($9.2 million), High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku) WK4
07 (05) ¥25,896,300 ($230,000), -45%, ¥342,349,800 ($3.0 million), Godzilla: Planet of Monsters (Toho) WK3
08 (06) ¥25,750,700 ($228,000), -41%, ¥1,005,117,700 ($9.0 million), The Last Recipe (Toho) WK5
09 (12) ¥23,346,840 ($207,000), -30%, ¥63,647,640 ($564,000), Kaiketsu Zorori Movie: 30th Anniversary (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK2
10 (09) ¥22,793,500 ($202,000), -35%, ¥1,390,944,580 ($12.3 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel, Ch. I - Presage Flower (Aniplex) WK8
11 (07) ¥22,047,400 ($196,000), -47%, ¥281,409,200 ($2.5 million), The Stand-In Thief (Showgate) WK3

"The box office has been in a weak state since Fall began, especially now with the bottom half of the Top 10 being below ¥50 million and the very bottom falling below even ¥25 million. Thankfully,the next couple weeks has several notable films releasing that should liven the box office up again in time for the New Year."