The Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

[Desghidorah]

Besides Skull Island got sandwiched between Marvel and flipping Beauty and the Beast and it did pretty good .

In b4 "B-But those weren't summer blockbuster action-adventure films!"

Despite people ignoring the fact Avengers 4 is almost a month before and Far From Home is over a month away and Dark Phoenix likely not going to do very well. The only competition I see it enduring is Aladdin and Secret Life of Pets 2.

Even non-MCU Marvel films tend to shoot for massive audiences and BatB broke a billion. If those's are blockbusters I don't know what is.

Thankfully, while I agree with the competition ideas, I think Secret Life of Pets probably won't be too much of a problem as that seems more focused on the child exclusive demographic. Can't imagine too many unaccompanied adults or teens clamoring to see it. Aladdin seems like a bit more of a wildcard than Beauty and the Beast was and post BatB, Live-Action disney's reputation seems to keep diminishing. And given Aladdin, the original, while greatly loved doesn't seem as heavily remembered as Beauty and the Beast and lack of Robin Williams seems a bit of a bite into nostalgia for some. So I think by all means it'll win big, but maybe not as much as the last run.

[GodzillaFan1990's]

Even non-MCU Marvel films tend to shoot for massive audiences and BatB broke a billion. If those's are blockbusters I don't know what is.

Thankfully, while I agree with the competition ideas, I think Secret Life of Pets probably won't be too much of a problem as that seems more focused on the child exclusive demographic. Can't imagine too many unaccompanied adults or teens clamoring to see it. Aladdin seems like a bit more of a wildcard than Beauty and the Beast was and post BatB, Live-Action disney's reputation seems to keep diminishing. And given Aladdin, the original, while greatly loved doesn't seem as heavily remembered as Beauty and the Beast and lack of Robin Williams seems a bit of a bite into nostalgia for some. So I think by all means it'll win big, but maybe not as much as the last run.

It just makes you wonder why folks fear that it'll bomb or won't make as much since that's the case...

You know despite ignoring the views the first trailer alone made, more so then the first Godzilla and Skull Island.

[gottatalktothefake]

While it's extremely likely that Aladdin will make more, I would never say never. We live in a world where a Godzilla movie made more money than a Star Wars movie.

[GodzillaFan1990's]

While it's extremely likely that Aladdin will make more, I would never say never. We live in a world where a Godzilla movie made more money than a Star Wars movie.

Keep in mind though that's probably because of the backlash and bad taste The Last Jedi left in people's mouths.

[JGAR]

True but also because Solo was nothing special. It’s literally “eh.”

An important thing to remember though: how the mighty have fallen. 5 years ago, no one would’ve thought Star Wars would make an epic comeback and an epic collapse. And the numbers reflect that. Take that as an example that just how something like Star Wars can fall, a franchise as small as Godzilla can rise up in popularity.

[miguelnuva]

While it's extremely likely that Aladdin will make more, I would never say never. We live in a world where a Godzilla movie made more money than a Star Wars movie.

Godzilla made more than several mcu movies and only made 100m less than Justice league. He's a heavyweight.

[LegendZilla]

Worst case scenario : Alladin makes 3x as much money as Beauty and the Beast ‘17.

[Pkmatrix]

Sorry for dredging this back up, but I want to bring up something I didn't see anyone mention here.

Unlike in 2014, the rules and margin for success are going to be very different for KOTM than a typical movie. Most movies, as we've discussed time and again in these threads, need to make at least double their budget to break even with a usual target of 2.5x. However, since 2014 Legendary Pictures has become a subsidiary of Wanda Group, the largest operator of movie theaters in the world (they are the parent company of AMC Theaters in North America, among other major chains in Europe, Australia, and Asia). So, unlike most movies, Legendary will get back most or all of the profits from releases in these theaters because they are all the same company meaning the movie doesn't necessarily need to make double its budget to be profitable.

Let's keep that in mind with our predictions and when the returns actually come in. $200M domestically in North America, for instance, will mean a lot more for KOTM than it would for a purely Warner Brothers release.

[miguelnuva]

I'm still saying 800m worldwide as a finish. Maybe 700-750 actually.

[JGAR]

I’m starting to settle in between $600M-$800M worldwide. Overseas audiences are going to eat up the apocalyptic action.

[jrock]

I’m starting to settle in between $600M-$800M worldwide. Overseas audiences are going to eat up the apocalyptic action.

Probably a solid estimate, but maybe conservative. I know the hype for this sequel is surpassing the hype that the 2014 Godzilla trailers created and that in itself is a high bar. I don't think it would really surprise me a whole lot to see this even exceed that range worldwide. It could flirt with a billion.

[AtomicMorningBreath]

No doubt it will make a KILLING overseas. I'm thinking between $200-250 million at the US box office.

[JGAR]

I’m starting to settle in between $600M-$800M worldwide. Overseas audiences are going to eat up the apocalyptic action.

Probably a solid estimate, but maybe conservative. I know the hype for this sequel is surpassing the hype that the 2014 Godzilla trailers created and that in itself is a high bar. I don't think it would really surprise me a whole lot to see this even exceed that range worldwide. It could flirt with a billion.

Remember that it’s going to be a challenge to win those back disappointed from Godzilla 2014. I’d say if the film is awesome and has great word of mouth, Godzilla vs King Kong is locked for $1B.

[Gojira-Fan]

Does anyone have any budget numbers for this movie? I can't seem to find any and it's hard to judge how well this film needs to do in order to be profitable.

[JGAR]

Does anyone have any budget numbers for this movie? I can't seem to find any and it's hard to judge how well this film needs to do in order to be profitable.

It’s unknown but based on the scale and lengthy post production, I’d say $200M, wouldn’t be surprised if it’s $250M though that’s higher than the average summer blockbuster budget.

[Pkmatrix]

Does anyone have any budget numbers for this movie? I can't seem to find any and it's hard to judge how well this film needs to do in order to be profitable.

I don't think that's been revealed anywhere, though my personal guess is between $180M and $200M.

[Gojira-Fan]

^ I figured it was around $200 million. It seems like that is the default budget for blockbusters nowadays. I always thought the $160 million for Legendary's Godzilla seemed a little low (although in all fairness that is still an enormous amount of money, really says something about how inflated blockbuster's budgets are).

I wonder why the budget figure is not available now?

[Pkmatrix]

^ I figured it was around $200 million. It seems like that is the default budget for blockbusters nowadays. I always thought the $160 million for Legendary's Godzilla seemed a little low (although in all fairness that is still an enormous amount of money, really says something about how inflated blockbuster's budgets are).

I wonder why the budget figure is not available now?

For many blockbusters that just simply isn't public knowledge so far ahead of release. Sometimes they don't make it public until AFTER the movie is released.

[Rhedosaurus]

The main test for this movie will be how well it holds up in it's second week, since X-Men: Dark Phoenix comes out. The question there is can Godzilla hold on the top spot. I'd say Yes for the following reasons.

1. The last X-Men movie was kinda...meh.

2. No Hugh Jackman/Wolverine. He retired the character after Logan. Speaking of witch...

3. Many people think this movie isn't needed since Logan wrapped things up so well.

4. This movie is made by Simon Kinberg, one of the masterminds of the trainwreck known as Fant4stic. Some say that he was the one who made the reshoots. And according to this video, the movie is supposed to be just as bad as Fant4stic.



Much of these leaks are starting to be confirmed by what's come out recently.

[JGAR]

Aladdin is getting crucified on social media thanks to those horrendous EW stills and magazine cover. This could work in favor of Godzilla if the marketing for that film keeps causing embarrassment. Not to mention the Memorial Day weekend curse and Guy Ritchie’s bad filmography.